Pride comes before a fool

This can’t go on. On Monday, I lost £200. On Tuesday, it was £310. I have now lost £1,400 on the horses in the past fortnight. Bearing in mind that I have got only five days’ work in May – and lost nearly £1,400 on a football bet last month – such losses are obviously unsustainable.

I must be stupid, but I still genuinely believe that I can make money trading horse races on Betfair. On Monday, I probably placed 200 trades (backing a horse at one price and then ‘laying’ – taking a bet on it – at a shorter price). About 90% of these were successful, earning me on average 50p a time.

It is clearly the remaining 10% of the time where the problems lie. In these cases, the market moves in the opposite direction to which I expect – usually significantly. My options are to take a loss (generally between £4 and £8) or to let the bet carry on after the race has started (this is generally taboo among traders). I take the pre-race loss most of the time, but occasionally let a bet go in-play. If I have laid a horse and placed a bet to back it (at a higher odds) that has not been matched because the horse has shortened in price, I am hoping that it finds itself at the back of the field, which will cause its odds to lengthen. Conversely, if I have backed a horse that has lengthened in price (meaning that my lay bet at a shorter price has not been matched), I hope that it races near the front of the pack, so that its price comes in and my bet gets matched.

In reality, odds can fluctuate wildly in running, as punters react to what they are watching on their TV screens, ensuring that most unmatched bets gets matched.
Anyway, on Monday I was about £50 up coming towards the end of the day’s racing. Not a huge amount, but not to be sniffed at, after my disastrous recent run. I a laid a horse in the penultimate race of the day, but the price had shortened, so I was facing a loss of about £10. As the horse was the third favourite, and the two market leaders were strongly fancied, I decided to let the bet run. As long as it didn’t win, I would make £27 profit on the race – significantly more than the £1.50 I had made, on average, on the rest of the afternoon’s races. The race started and the horse I didn’t want to win raced into the lead. The price plummeted, leaving me with the choice of taking a £60 loss or letting the bet run. I assumed that one of the two favourites would make a challenge – but I was wrong. The horse drew further and further clear and was the easiest winner of the afternoon. I had lost £175.

I was obviously gutted and made a bad trade on the final race of the day. The market moved against me and I was soon £10 down. But I was loath to lose more money, so I again let the race start. Incredibly, the one horse in the field of 20 that I wanted beaten surged into a lead. My loss reached £25 and I decided that discretion was the better part of valour – so I clicked on the ‘greening’ button, which evens out your loss, whichever horse wins. Unfortunately, the greening button failed to work – it fails about one in 50 attempts – and I watched the horse I had laid win the race at a canter. Another £80 down the pan.

I was fuming and hardly slept a wink that night. I considered giving up, but hate being beaten by anything, so decided to put another £500 into my Betfair account. The foolishness of my decision became apparent after the first race on Tuesday. I laid a horse which was then backed off the boards. It was the worst trade I have ever made, and my loss was £30 before the race had even started. There was no way I was going to accept this, so I let it go in-play. You can guess what happened next. Noodles Blue Boy went straight into the lead – and my potential loss was already £90. As the race was only a fifth of the way through, I decided to take the calculated risk that the horse would either get beaten or at least be challenged for the lead (meaning that its price would drift and my losses be reduced). But it couldn’t have won any easier. I had lost another £155.

I did OK for the rest of the afternoon – until the last race of he day. You know the story already: I back a horse; the price shortens; I decide against taking a loss and let the bet run after the race starts, the only horse that I don’t want to win races into an unassailable lead; I sweat it out – and lose £160.

I have just discovered via a YouTube video that features two TV screens showing the same race, that some people are receiving pictures that are two seconds ahead of the standard racing channels. So when the in-running odds are plummeting quicker than the on-screen action suggests they should be, it is because some punters have got an unfair advantage. But this doesn’t explain why every time I take a loss before a race, I would have made a profit if I had let the bets run, while every time I let a bet run, the only horse (often in a field of 20) that I want beaten, invariably wins.

I didn’t think I’d ever say this, but I can’t wait to get back to work.