Déjà vu

Since losing £500 in the course of 48 hours a couple of weeks ago, I’ve been overly cautious in my trading. Every time the market moves against me, I’ve been taking a small loss and starting again. As a result, I’m £100 up on the horses over the past 10 days – although six consecutive losing bets on corners have wiped out most of this profit.

That was until yesterday. I was trading reasonably well, but was still making too many mistakes. By the time the evening racing started, I was £1 up on the day. On the next race, the market went against on each of the first three favourites and I faced a £20 loss. But, in keeping with my new strategy, I decided to accept this loss.

On the next race, I laid a horse for £24 at 8.2. I expected the horse’s price to lengthen, allowing me to back it 8.4 for a small, guaranteed profit. But the price shortened. I was convinced that the odds would ‘bounce’, though, so laid the horse for another £24. Within a couple of minutes, I had laid it for £96, leaving me with a potential loss of £650 if it won. But the market had moved against me, and by the time the race had started, I was facing a loss of £30 whichever horse won the race.

As I had just suffered my worst loss of the day on the previous race, I was not keen to accept another one. So I let the bets run, hoping that they would be matched in running and giving me a guaranteed profit of about £5. I expected them to be matched because it was a long-distance race (allowing more time for the odds to move back and forth) and because the horse in question was only the fourth favourite.

Anyway, although the horse was just one of half a dozen in the leading group, for some reason its price started tumbling. From £30 before the race started, it was suddenly a guaranteed loss of £80. Then £100. Then £140. I broke into a cold sweat as the figure increased by the second. What should I do? There were several horses in with a chance, but for some reason, the one on which I had the huge liability had become the favourite. I watched the race for about two minutes, in dismay. Should I take a £180 loss or hope that the horse got beaten. Quick – it’s £200 now. Bearing in mind that the downside was a £650 loss, I clicked on the button – and took a loss of £250.02.

What happened next was too much to take. Within three seconds of accepting such a horrific loss, the horse was clearly struggling. If I had waited just another three seconds, I would have made a £6 profit on the race, as all my back bets would have been matched. Alternatively, I could have cancelled the back bets and let all the lay bets run – and pocketed £96 (which would have been my biggest ever win on a race). The horse trailed home in fifth place.

So I had lost £250 – my biggest-ever loss on a race – on a horse that finished fifth. Why is that I usually let the bets run, in the hope that something will beat the horse that I have laid – and I always lose. Yet when I decide to cut my losses, I would have been £346 better off if I had done nothing. Why do I never make the right decision?