Lay to waste

Thought it was about time I provided a brief synopsis of the highs and lows of the past 10 days. But, as always, it has been a case of lows and lowers.

After losing every night last week (and more than £100 on two occasions), I had a day off on Friday. I was confident that now I was beginning to get to grips with Bet Angel, I would turn a profit. But I made the usual big mistake and lost £150 on the day. I laid Comeonthehammers to lose £110, which was running so poorly that it drifted to 150 in running. Unlike the football team after which it is named, though, it came good in the end. As a West Ham season ticket holder for more than 20 years, it was particularly galling.

After a busy weekend away from my laptop (although I did manage to lose another £30 on Ronnie O'Sullivan wining the snooker world championship), I decided that Tuesday would be 'make or break day'. I'm more than £2,000 down in the past four weeks, and as work has dried up, I can't sustain such losses much longer. If I couldn't make money that afternoon, I would have to admit defeat. My tactic was to trade, with the occasional small lay in-running. My trading was largely successful, although using an average stake of only £12, I was making only an average of £2 a race. But that is a profit of £2, whichever horse wins a race. I lost a couple of times when laying, but nothing more than £25. The cautious approach paid off, and I made £55 on the day.

Buoyed by the previous day's success, yesterday I told a friend that I was confident of making a real go of trading. I even raised my stake to £20 on Wednesday afternoon. But I made so many poor decisions. Most of my unmatched trades were matched in running, which is more luck than judgement (For example, I might back a horse at 5 with the intention of laying it before the race at 4.8. But I read the market wrongly and the price drifts to 6. I can lay it at 6 and accept a loss or leave it to go in-running. If the horse is up with the pace, its lay price might drop to 4.8 and my bet is matched. But if it is struggling, the lay bet may never be matched and I lose my entire back stake of £20). But I was still £50 down going into the final two races of the day.

On the penultimate race, I laid a horse at 5 for £25. But its price dropped and my back bet of 5.2 was never met. I took a risk and let the bet go in-play. Naturally, it went straight into the lead and the price plummeted. The horse was the easiest winner of the day - and I had lost £100. On the final race, the opposite happened. I backed the favourite for £60 just before the price drifted alarmingly. In-play, it was always at the back of the field. I laid £20 off at a far bigger price than which I had backed it, but the price was soon so high that I couldn't risk another bet. It came almost last and I was another £40 down.

It's incredible how often the opposite to what I need to happen does. When I lay a horse and want the price to drift in running, it leads the whole way. When I've backed a horse and need a bold showing to force the price down so that my lay bet gets matched, it runs as if it's got three legs.

With two losing bets on the Champions League semi-final (can you believe that Arsenal, with all their attacking flair, didn't win a single corner?), I was £210 on the day.

I am well aware that I should be accepting small losses when the market goes against me. It's just that the market goes against me regularly, before often swinging back in my favour. I am not making enough when I win to cover regular small losses, so I let them run. Usually it's a risk worth taking. But when it doesn't pay off, the downside is huge.