Morecambe wasn't wise

Well it’s a month into the new season and, hard as it is to believe, I’m in profit. It’s only about £20, but it is so long that I have been in the black that I’m going to make a song and dance about it.

My only win of note has been £200 on my first football bet of the season. Although it was a great way to start, it was equally frustrating because I had halved my usual stake. But rather than heralding a profitable new era in my gambling career, this win has been followed by the usual array of ridiculously lucky near misses.

In summary, since I hit the jackpot, my results have been (and I need to get all my predictions right to make a profit): six out of seven correct; four out of five correct; four out of five correct; five out of six correct: one out of five correct; six out of seven correct; and two out of three correct.

The penultimate loss was particularly galling. The one prediction I got wrong was Rotherham to beat Morecambe. Rotherham were top of the table, having won all four of their home matches. They were averaging almost three goals per game. Morecambe were in 23rd place, having lost all four of their away games, scoring four and conceding 13 in the process. A home win was one of the bets of the day in The Sun and the London Paper. But it was the last selection to go into my bet – and I included it only to bump up my potential winnings.

Morecambe held out for a 0-0 draw. The BBC report read: ‘The Millers [Rotherham] dominated after half-time, with Kevin Ellison twice going close and Danny Harrison having a header cleared off the line.’ If any of those chances has been converted, I would have won £600.

As far as the horseracing is concerned, I have significantly curtailed my activity. I obviously couldn’t continue like I was before I went away in June, rushing home from work every night to log on to Betfair, then sitting in front of my laptop all weekend. It still makes me shake with anger that I lost £6,000 (a third of my total income from journalism for the year) in four months – including almost £400 on a single race. I have yet to resubscribe to the software that I need to carry out my system. I did have a little dabble one afternoon without it, but was soon £60 down.

I have not set any targets for this season. Losing less than £8,000 would be a step forward. But the continual near misses have encouraged me to undertake more detailed research before placing my football bets, particularly as I have a lot of time off work over the next few weeks. My simple aim is to win a four-figure sum three times this season. I am confident I will achieve this.

My bank's holiday

It’s not something I like to admit – but I have failed. And failed miserably, at that.

I find it laughable that when I started writing this blog in August, my aim was to turn £1,000 into £10,000. I’m too scared to calculate the exact figure, but I have actually managed to turn £1,000 into -£5.000. It might be -£4,800 or even -£5,200.

Whatever, it is an obscene amount and I am disgusted with myself.
Over the past few weeks, I have continued to rush home from work to trade on the evening racing, while every day off has been spent hunched over my laptop. Since my horrific losses of April and May, I have been far more circumspect. I have only once lost more than £50 in a day. But I am losing almost every day – for example, in the past 10 days, I have come out in profit only once (and that was just £30).

I still win 90% of my trades, but every day I make at least one serious error, laying a horse that looks as if it is struggling, but then nicks the race in a photo-finish (why is it always a photo-finish?), wiping out all the day’s profits and more. On Wednesday night, for example, I made a profit on 11 out of 12 races. The problem was that I lost £40 on the other race, giving me an overall deficit of £15 on the night.

I must be stupid, but I still think I can make a go out of this in the long run. But in the short term, I am having to borrow £2,000 off my mum to pay a tax bill. And as I can’t tap her for any more, I am having to give up my season ticket at West Ham after 21 years because I can’t afford it – which will give me 19 more afternoons to log on to Betfair when the new season starts.

Anyway, I’m off to Indochina for eight weeks tomorrow – the things I do to escape Betfair. So I won’t be having another bet till mid-August. Or perhaps until I get to Macau. In the meantime, I’ve got one bet still running – I’ve laid Es.sex (my team) to win the LV County Championship Division Two to the tune of a liability of £80. So get on them now – to win it..

Be lucky.

Déjà vu

Since losing £500 in the course of 48 hours a couple of weeks ago, I’ve been overly cautious in my trading. Every time the market moves against me, I’ve been taking a small loss and starting again. As a result, I’m £100 up on the horses over the past 10 days – although six consecutive losing bets on corners have wiped out most of this profit.

That was until yesterday. I was trading reasonably well, but was still making too many mistakes. By the time the evening racing started, I was £1 up on the day. On the next race, the market went against on each of the first three favourites and I faced a £20 loss. But, in keeping with my new strategy, I decided to accept this loss.

On the next race, I laid a horse for £24 at 8.2. I expected the horse’s price to lengthen, allowing me to back it 8.4 for a small, guaranteed profit. But the price shortened. I was convinced that the odds would ‘bounce’, though, so laid the horse for another £24. Within a couple of minutes, I had laid it for £96, leaving me with a potential loss of £650 if it won. But the market had moved against me, and by the time the race had started, I was facing a loss of £30 whichever horse won the race.

As I had just suffered my worst loss of the day on the previous race, I was not keen to accept another one. So I let the bets run, hoping that they would be matched in running and giving me a guaranteed profit of about £5. I expected them to be matched because it was a long-distance race (allowing more time for the odds to move back and forth) and because the horse in question was only the fourth favourite.

Anyway, although the horse was just one of half a dozen in the leading group, for some reason its price started tumbling. From £30 before the race started, it was suddenly a guaranteed loss of £80. Then £100. Then £140. I broke into a cold sweat as the figure increased by the second. What should I do? There were several horses in with a chance, but for some reason, the one on which I had the huge liability had become the favourite. I watched the race for about two minutes, in dismay. Should I take a £180 loss or hope that the horse got beaten. Quick – it’s £200 now. Bearing in mind that the downside was a £650 loss, I clicked on the button – and took a loss of £250.02.

What happened next was too much to take. Within three seconds of accepting such a horrific loss, the horse was clearly struggling. If I had waited just another three seconds, I would have made a £6 profit on the race, as all my back bets would have been matched. Alternatively, I could have cancelled the back bets and let all the lay bets run – and pocketed £96 (which would have been my biggest ever win on a race). The horse trailed home in fifth place.

So I had lost £250 – my biggest-ever loss on a race – on a horse that finished fifth. Why is that I usually let the bets run, in the hope that something will beat the horse that I have laid – and I always lose. Yet when I decide to cut my losses, I would have been £346 better off if I had done nothing. Why do I never make the right decision?

Penny pinching

I have pontificated before on this site that my stakes increased exponentially when I started gambling online, rather than in a betting shop. It’s as if it isn’t real money: typing ‘£50’ into a box and clicking ‘OK’ is far easier than handing £50 across a counter.

This mindset was perfectly illustrated last Saturday, when I went racing at Ascot. Although I used to be quite a regular at Walthamstow dogs, this was only my seventh trip to the races. A friend had won table at one of the track’s premier restaurants, which included entry to the course, racecard, four-course meal, free all-day bar – and a complimentary copy of he Racing Post. With a £242 price tag per person, it was well worth sacrificing a visit to the Boleyn Ground to watch West Ham’s inevitable defeat by Liverpool.

Hardly surprisingly, I was the most hardened gambler in our four-strong group, In fact, I probably had more bets on the 7.40 at Wexford the previous evening than my three companions had placed in their entire lives – and I don’t even know where Wexford is.

But with the UK’s top racecourse to explore, as well as the distraction of making the most of the free food and drink, I failed to have a bet on the first race. When I’m home in front of the laptop, and there are more than 40 races ahead, I get frustrated if I don’t have several bets on every race. But on this occasion, I was indifferent. In the second race, after a brief examination of the racecard, I decided to back a horse at about 7-1 (none of those mathematical odds on course – even if I did back it on the Tote). I decided to place a £1 each way bet, but was told by the Tote cashier that the minimum unit stake was £2. As I didn’t want to spend £4 because I’d had only a cursory glance at the form, I placed a £2 win bet. Yes, the man who risks losing more than £200 a race on horses of which he has never heard, at tracks he doesn’t even know which country they are in, in the hope of winning £5, didn’t want to spend an extra £2 during a once-in-a-lifetime day out.

Of course, the horse won without ever being extended. My £2 bet returned £18.20. For various reasons, I didn’t place a single bet on the next three races. I had only my second wager of the day on the final race – £2 each way on a horse that finished fourth. I had the second-fewest bets out of the four of us, spending only £2 more than a bloke who had spurned innumerable invitations to the races over the past 20 years.

Taking into account the cost of my train and Tube fares, I made a profit of 6p on the day – 5p on my gambling and a 1p coin I had found on the Underground first thing that morning. I wouldn’t normally pick a penny up (‘itchy chin’ I can hear those of you who know me well saying), but I was mindful of the adage: ‘Find a penny, pick it up, all the day you’ll have good luck’. Perhaps I should start trawling the streets of Epping in search of a penny before I log on to Betfair each day.

The only downside to the day was that I didn’t get a chance to place a large bet on Liverpool to win – we arrived back at the pub opposite Waterloo station just in time to see them score their third goal, without reply.

Pride comes before a fool

This can’t go on. On Monday, I lost £200. On Tuesday, it was £310. I have now lost £1,400 on the horses in the past fortnight. Bearing in mind that I have got only five days’ work in May – and lost nearly £1,400 on a football bet last month – such losses are obviously unsustainable.

I must be stupid, but I still genuinely believe that I can make money trading horse races on Betfair. On Monday, I probably placed 200 trades (backing a horse at one price and then ‘laying’ – taking a bet on it – at a shorter price). About 90% of these were successful, earning me on average 50p a time.

It is clearly the remaining 10% of the time where the problems lie. In these cases, the market moves in the opposite direction to which I expect – usually significantly. My options are to take a loss (generally between £4 and £8) or to let the bet carry on after the race has started (this is generally taboo among traders). I take the pre-race loss most of the time, but occasionally let a bet go in-play. If I have laid a horse and placed a bet to back it (at a higher odds) that has not been matched because the horse has shortened in price, I am hoping that it finds itself at the back of the field, which will cause its odds to lengthen. Conversely, if I have backed a horse that has lengthened in price (meaning that my lay bet at a shorter price has not been matched), I hope that it races near the front of the pack, so that its price comes in and my bet gets matched.

In reality, odds can fluctuate wildly in running, as punters react to what they are watching on their TV screens, ensuring that most unmatched bets gets matched.
Anyway, on Monday I was about £50 up coming towards the end of the day’s racing. Not a huge amount, but not to be sniffed at, after my disastrous recent run. I a laid a horse in the penultimate race of the day, but the price had shortened, so I was facing a loss of about £10. As the horse was the third favourite, and the two market leaders were strongly fancied, I decided to let the bet run. As long as it didn’t win, I would make £27 profit on the race – significantly more than the £1.50 I had made, on average, on the rest of the afternoon’s races. The race started and the horse I didn’t want to win raced into the lead. The price plummeted, leaving me with the choice of taking a £60 loss or letting the bet run. I assumed that one of the two favourites would make a challenge – but I was wrong. The horse drew further and further clear and was the easiest winner of the afternoon. I had lost £175.

I was obviously gutted and made a bad trade on the final race of the day. The market moved against me and I was soon £10 down. But I was loath to lose more money, so I again let the race start. Incredibly, the one horse in the field of 20 that I wanted beaten surged into a lead. My loss reached £25 and I decided that discretion was the better part of valour – so I clicked on the ‘greening’ button, which evens out your loss, whichever horse wins. Unfortunately, the greening button failed to work – it fails about one in 50 attempts – and I watched the horse I had laid win the race at a canter. Another £80 down the pan.

I was fuming and hardly slept a wink that night. I considered giving up, but hate being beaten by anything, so decided to put another £500 into my Betfair account. The foolishness of my decision became apparent after the first race on Tuesday. I laid a horse which was then backed off the boards. It was the worst trade I have ever made, and my loss was £30 before the race had even started. There was no way I was going to accept this, so I let it go in-play. You can guess what happened next. Noodles Blue Boy went straight into the lead – and my potential loss was already £90. As the race was only a fifth of the way through, I decided to take the calculated risk that the horse would either get beaten or at least be challenged for the lead (meaning that its price would drift and my losses be reduced). But it couldn’t have won any easier. I had lost another £155.

I did OK for the rest of the afternoon – until the last race of he day. You know the story already: I back a horse; the price shortens; I decide against taking a loss and let the bet run after the race starts, the only horse that I don’t want to win races into an unassailable lead; I sweat it out – and lose £160.

I have just discovered via a YouTube video that features two TV screens showing the same race, that some people are receiving pictures that are two seconds ahead of the standard racing channels. So when the in-running odds are plummeting quicker than the on-screen action suggests they should be, it is because some punters have got an unfair advantage. But this doesn’t explain why every time I take a loss before a race, I would have made a profit if I had let the bets run, while every time I let a bet run, the only horse (often in a field of 20) that I want beaten, invariably wins.

I didn’t think I’d ever say this, but I can’t wait to get back to work.

Lay to waste

Thought it was about time I provided a brief synopsis of the highs and lows of the past 10 days. But, as always, it has been a case of lows and lowers.

After losing every night last week (and more than £100 on two occasions), I had a day off on Friday. I was confident that now I was beginning to get to grips with Bet Angel, I would turn a profit. But I made the usual big mistake and lost £150 on the day. I laid Comeonthehammers to lose £110, which was running so poorly that it drifted to 150 in running. Unlike the football team after which it is named, though, it came good in the end. As a West Ham season ticket holder for more than 20 years, it was particularly galling.

After a busy weekend away from my laptop (although I did manage to lose another £30 on Ronnie O'Sullivan wining the snooker world championship), I decided that Tuesday would be 'make or break day'. I'm more than £2,000 down in the past four weeks, and as work has dried up, I can't sustain such losses much longer. If I couldn't make money that afternoon, I would have to admit defeat. My tactic was to trade, with the occasional small lay in-running. My trading was largely successful, although using an average stake of only £12, I was making only an average of £2 a race. But that is a profit of £2, whichever horse wins a race. I lost a couple of times when laying, but nothing more than £25. The cautious approach paid off, and I made £55 on the day.

Buoyed by the previous day's success, yesterday I told a friend that I was confident of making a real go of trading. I even raised my stake to £20 on Wednesday afternoon. But I made so many poor decisions. Most of my unmatched trades were matched in running, which is more luck than judgement (For example, I might back a horse at 5 with the intention of laying it before the race at 4.8. But I read the market wrongly and the price drifts to 6. I can lay it at 6 and accept a loss or leave it to go in-running. If the horse is up with the pace, its lay price might drop to 4.8 and my bet is matched. But if it is struggling, the lay bet may never be matched and I lose my entire back stake of £20). But I was still £50 down going into the final two races of the day.

On the penultimate race, I laid a horse at 5 for £25. But its price dropped and my back bet of 5.2 was never met. I took a risk and let the bet go in-play. Naturally, it went straight into the lead and the price plummeted. The horse was the easiest winner of the day - and I had lost £100. On the final race, the opposite happened. I backed the favourite for £60 just before the price drifted alarmingly. In-play, it was always at the back of the field. I laid £20 off at a far bigger price than which I had backed it, but the price was soon so high that I couldn't risk another bet. It came almost last and I was another £40 down.

It's incredible how often the opposite to what I need to happen does. When I lay a horse and want the price to drift in running, it leads the whole way. When I've backed a horse and need a bold showing to force the price down so that my lay bet gets matched, it runs as if it's got three legs.

With two losing bets on the Champions League semi-final (can you believe that Arsenal, with all their attacking flair, didn't win a single corner?), I was £210 on the day.

I am well aware that I should be accepting small losses when the market goes against me. It's just that the market goes against me regularly, before often swinging back in my favour. I am not making enough when I win to cover regular small losses, so I let them run. Usually it's a risk worth taking. But when it doesn't pay off, the downside is huge.

Angel fools

On Sunday, I had my worst-ever day gambling on the horses. I should have known as early as the first race, as the short-priced favourite I had backed fell at the final fence when a long way ahead of its rivals, leaving the race to a horse that I had laid.

I’ve been trialling some new software, Bet Angel, which is a complex ‘betting bot’ that should make it easier to make a profit from my betting. But it has so many features, that it is easy to forget to cancel a bet or press the wrong button. This is exactly what happened to me on the second race of the day – and my fast-diminishing funds took another hit.

I was only 10 minutes into the afternoon’s racing and I was already £60. In an attempt to claw back some money, I started blindly backing favourites. It was soon clear that it was going to be a day which would be dominated by outsiders (to put things into perspective, Templegate, The Sun’s acclaimed tipster, had only one winner from 19 selections).

I was more than £100 down when I made my customary shocking decision. I laid a horse, which was running poorly, at 30.0 to lose £240. Within a minute, it looked as fresh as the proverbial daisy and was in third place, and going better than any of its rivals, with thee fences left to jump. I couldn’t risk losing £240, so quickly had £85 on it at 3.0. Of course, only seconds later it was struggling again, and finished third. If I’d had done nothing, I would have made £8 on the race. Instead, I had lost £85.

Now facing a deficit of almost £200, I started increasing my stakes on the favourites. But I just couldn’t back a winner – my run of luck was incredible. This was the fate of the horses that started at 5/2 or shorter during the course of the afternoon: 1/3 first, 4/9 unplaced, 4/6 second, 4/5 first, 5/6 unplaced, 5/6 second, 9/10 unplaced, 10/11 first, Evens unplaced, 11/10 third, 5/4 third, 6/4 second, 6/4 third, 6/4 unplaced, 13/8 first, 13/8 first, 15/8 dead-heat first, 2/1 first, 2/1 second, 5/2 third, 5/2 unplaced and 5/2 unplaced. If you had placed a £20 bet on each of these (and I did on all the losers – of course, overlooking a couple of the winners), you would have lost £135.

The afternoon reached a nadir with the 4.55 at Leopardstown. I had read in the morning that a horse called Indian Ridge was being heavily backed. As this is usually a good sign, I had £20 on it. By the time the race had started, it was favourite. But the jockey settled the horse near the back of the field, and as the leaders rounded the home turn, Indian Ridge was about 30 lengths off the pace. In desperation to recoup a few quid, I identified a horse near the back of the field with less chance of winning than my selection. So I laid it for £3 at 26.0. A combination of my hastiness and the poor camera angle, however, meant that instead of taking a bet on a horse whose jockey was wearing yellow-and-blue silks and a stripy hat, I had taken a bet on a horse whose jockey was wearing yellow-and-blue silks and a spotted cap. Of course, the horse I had laid, Majestic, was in second place and within a couple of seconds had raced into an unassailable. Suddenly, Indian Ridge appeared on the scene and chased Majestic all the way to the line. It got within half a length and would have won if the race had been 50 yards longer – or the incompetent jockey had started his run a split-second earlier. If Indian Ridge had won, I would have made £80 on the race. But as Majestic held on, I had lost £85. Quite a difference.

I should have clawed a significant amount back on the final race of the day. But, as usual, I made the wrong decision. I was felling somewhat reckless and decided to back the three shortest-priced horses in the race for a total of £60. Halfway through the race, all three were running fine. Then one of my horses fell, bringing down another. So I had one chance left – and if that didn’t win, I would lose another £60.

Now when I have laid a horse and it moves into the lead, I rarely back at the vastly reduced odds on offer. I just cross my fingers that something will beat it because if I do back it and it fails to win, I have still lost a lot of money. Whereas if it fails to win, as I originally anticipated, I make a profit. But with the boot on the other foot, and my one remaining runner contesting the lead, I decided to lay it for £60. Within a second of me placing the bet, it had pulled clear of the field, and was never in danger of not running. My decision meant that rather than winning £110, I won only £40. Of course, if it had been beaten, rather than losing £60, I would have won £5.

Why is that I always take out insurance on a selection when I needn’t have, and do nothing, when I should be doing something? Another hideous afternoon – and a loss of £280. When is this run of luck going to change?