Déjà vu

Since losing £500 in the course of 48 hours a couple of weeks ago, I’ve been overly cautious in my trading. Every time the market moves against me, I’ve been taking a small loss and starting again. As a result, I’m £100 up on the horses over the past 10 days – although six consecutive losing bets on corners have wiped out most of this profit.

That was until yesterday. I was trading reasonably well, but was still making too many mistakes. By the time the evening racing started, I was £1 up on the day. On the next race, the market went against on each of the first three favourites and I faced a £20 loss. But, in keeping with my new strategy, I decided to accept this loss.

On the next race, I laid a horse for £24 at 8.2. I expected the horse’s price to lengthen, allowing me to back it 8.4 for a small, guaranteed profit. But the price shortened. I was convinced that the odds would ‘bounce’, though, so laid the horse for another £24. Within a couple of minutes, I had laid it for £96, leaving me with a potential loss of £650 if it won. But the market had moved against me, and by the time the race had started, I was facing a loss of £30 whichever horse won the race.

As I had just suffered my worst loss of the day on the previous race, I was not keen to accept another one. So I let the bets run, hoping that they would be matched in running and giving me a guaranteed profit of about £5. I expected them to be matched because it was a long-distance race (allowing more time for the odds to move back and forth) and because the horse in question was only the fourth favourite.

Anyway, although the horse was just one of half a dozen in the leading group, for some reason its price started tumbling. From £30 before the race started, it was suddenly a guaranteed loss of £80. Then £100. Then £140. I broke into a cold sweat as the figure increased by the second. What should I do? There were several horses in with a chance, but for some reason, the one on which I had the huge liability had become the favourite. I watched the race for about two minutes, in dismay. Should I take a £180 loss or hope that the horse got beaten. Quick – it’s £200 now. Bearing in mind that the downside was a £650 loss, I clicked on the button – and took a loss of £250.02.

What happened next was too much to take. Within three seconds of accepting such a horrific loss, the horse was clearly struggling. If I had waited just another three seconds, I would have made a £6 profit on the race, as all my back bets would have been matched. Alternatively, I could have cancelled the back bets and let all the lay bets run – and pocketed £96 (which would have been my biggest ever win on a race). The horse trailed home in fifth place.

So I had lost £250 – my biggest-ever loss on a race – on a horse that finished fifth. Why is that I usually let the bets run, in the hope that something will beat the horse that I have laid – and I always lose. Yet when I decide to cut my losses, I would have been £346 better off if I had done nothing. Why do I never make the right decision?

Penny pinching

I have pontificated before on this site that my stakes increased exponentially when I started gambling online, rather than in a betting shop. It’s as if it isn’t real money: typing ‘£50’ into a box and clicking ‘OK’ is far easier than handing £50 across a counter.

This mindset was perfectly illustrated last Saturday, when I went racing at Ascot. Although I used to be quite a regular at Walthamstow dogs, this was only my seventh trip to the races. A friend had won table at one of the track’s premier restaurants, which included entry to the course, racecard, four-course meal, free all-day bar – and a complimentary copy of he Racing Post. With a £242 price tag per person, it was well worth sacrificing a visit to the Boleyn Ground to watch West Ham’s inevitable defeat by Liverpool.

Hardly surprisingly, I was the most hardened gambler in our four-strong group, In fact, I probably had more bets on the 7.40 at Wexford the previous evening than my three companions had placed in their entire lives – and I don’t even know where Wexford is.

But with the UK’s top racecourse to explore, as well as the distraction of making the most of the free food and drink, I failed to have a bet on the first race. When I’m home in front of the laptop, and there are more than 40 races ahead, I get frustrated if I don’t have several bets on every race. But on this occasion, I was indifferent. In the second race, after a brief examination of the racecard, I decided to back a horse at about 7-1 (none of those mathematical odds on course – even if I did back it on the Tote). I decided to place a £1 each way bet, but was told by the Tote cashier that the minimum unit stake was £2. As I didn’t want to spend £4 because I’d had only a cursory glance at the form, I placed a £2 win bet. Yes, the man who risks losing more than £200 a race on horses of which he has never heard, at tracks he doesn’t even know which country they are in, in the hope of winning £5, didn’t want to spend an extra £2 during a once-in-a-lifetime day out.

Of course, the horse won without ever being extended. My £2 bet returned £18.20. For various reasons, I didn’t place a single bet on the next three races. I had only my second wager of the day on the final race – £2 each way on a horse that finished fourth. I had the second-fewest bets out of the four of us, spending only £2 more than a bloke who had spurned innumerable invitations to the races over the past 20 years.

Taking into account the cost of my train and Tube fares, I made a profit of 6p on the day – 5p on my gambling and a 1p coin I had found on the Underground first thing that morning. I wouldn’t normally pick a penny up (‘itchy chin’ I can hear those of you who know me well saying), but I was mindful of the adage: ‘Find a penny, pick it up, all the day you’ll have good luck’. Perhaps I should start trawling the streets of Epping in search of a penny before I log on to Betfair each day.

The only downside to the day was that I didn’t get a chance to place a large bet on Liverpool to win – we arrived back at the pub opposite Waterloo station just in time to see them score their third goal, without reply.

Pride comes before a fool

This can’t go on. On Monday, I lost £200. On Tuesday, it was £310. I have now lost £1,400 on the horses in the past fortnight. Bearing in mind that I have got only five days’ work in May – and lost nearly £1,400 on a football bet last month – such losses are obviously unsustainable.

I must be stupid, but I still genuinely believe that I can make money trading horse races on Betfair. On Monday, I probably placed 200 trades (backing a horse at one price and then ‘laying’ – taking a bet on it – at a shorter price). About 90% of these were successful, earning me on average 50p a time.

It is clearly the remaining 10% of the time where the problems lie. In these cases, the market moves in the opposite direction to which I expect – usually significantly. My options are to take a loss (generally between £4 and £8) or to let the bet carry on after the race has started (this is generally taboo among traders). I take the pre-race loss most of the time, but occasionally let a bet go in-play. If I have laid a horse and placed a bet to back it (at a higher odds) that has not been matched because the horse has shortened in price, I am hoping that it finds itself at the back of the field, which will cause its odds to lengthen. Conversely, if I have backed a horse that has lengthened in price (meaning that my lay bet at a shorter price has not been matched), I hope that it races near the front of the pack, so that its price comes in and my bet gets matched.

In reality, odds can fluctuate wildly in running, as punters react to what they are watching on their TV screens, ensuring that most unmatched bets gets matched.
Anyway, on Monday I was about £50 up coming towards the end of the day’s racing. Not a huge amount, but not to be sniffed at, after my disastrous recent run. I a laid a horse in the penultimate race of the day, but the price had shortened, so I was facing a loss of about £10. As the horse was the third favourite, and the two market leaders were strongly fancied, I decided to let the bet run. As long as it didn’t win, I would make £27 profit on the race – significantly more than the £1.50 I had made, on average, on the rest of the afternoon’s races. The race started and the horse I didn’t want to win raced into the lead. The price plummeted, leaving me with the choice of taking a £60 loss or letting the bet run. I assumed that one of the two favourites would make a challenge – but I was wrong. The horse drew further and further clear and was the easiest winner of the afternoon. I had lost £175.

I was obviously gutted and made a bad trade on the final race of the day. The market moved against me and I was soon £10 down. But I was loath to lose more money, so I again let the race start. Incredibly, the one horse in the field of 20 that I wanted beaten surged into a lead. My loss reached £25 and I decided that discretion was the better part of valour – so I clicked on the ‘greening’ button, which evens out your loss, whichever horse wins. Unfortunately, the greening button failed to work – it fails about one in 50 attempts – and I watched the horse I had laid win the race at a canter. Another £80 down the pan.

I was fuming and hardly slept a wink that night. I considered giving up, but hate being beaten by anything, so decided to put another £500 into my Betfair account. The foolishness of my decision became apparent after the first race on Tuesday. I laid a horse which was then backed off the boards. It was the worst trade I have ever made, and my loss was £30 before the race had even started. There was no way I was going to accept this, so I let it go in-play. You can guess what happened next. Noodles Blue Boy went straight into the lead – and my potential loss was already £90. As the race was only a fifth of the way through, I decided to take the calculated risk that the horse would either get beaten or at least be challenged for the lead (meaning that its price would drift and my losses be reduced). But it couldn’t have won any easier. I had lost another £155.

I did OK for the rest of the afternoon – until the last race of he day. You know the story already: I back a horse; the price shortens; I decide against taking a loss and let the bet run after the race starts, the only horse that I don’t want to win races into an unassailable lead; I sweat it out – and lose £160.

I have just discovered via a YouTube video that features two TV screens showing the same race, that some people are receiving pictures that are two seconds ahead of the standard racing channels. So when the in-running odds are plummeting quicker than the on-screen action suggests they should be, it is because some punters have got an unfair advantage. But this doesn’t explain why every time I take a loss before a race, I would have made a profit if I had let the bets run, while every time I let a bet run, the only horse (often in a field of 20) that I want beaten, invariably wins.

I didn’t think I’d ever say this, but I can’t wait to get back to work.