5 November 2008

Reffing hell

I like to have a bet on live football matches. I generally back 'more than two goals' and 'more than 12 corners'. If I get it wrong, I just increase my stake to recoup my losses and give me a profit.

If I do this on every match I watch, I'll eventually come out on top. The problem is that I've got Setanta and Sky (so there are lots of live matches), I think I know a lot about football (so rather than bet on every game, I pick and choose) and I've got a limited budget.

Anyway, I'm having a terrible run on both fronts. I'm about £80 down on total goals and £30 down on corners. The former is more of a concern because not only are my losses a lot bigger, but the odds are far shorter, necessitating higher stakes.

On Saturday evening, Cardiff v Wolves was live on Sky and Tottenham v Liverpool on Setanta. I studied the form and really fancied goals in the Championship match. The price was about 1.82, so I placed a bet, requesting odds of 1.9 (it's a matter of principle never to accept the odds on offer on a betting exchange). If the match had remained goalless for about 10 minutes, my bet would have been matched. Unfortunately, Wolves scored after four minutes and eight minutes, with Cardiff hitting back after 19 minutes. So, I should have been sitting pretty less than a quarter of the way into the game, having recouped all of my losses. But my bet was never matched.

The same thing happened on the other channel. As fewer goals were expected in this game, the price was higher. But I still requested one that was even larger. Liverpool scored after three minutes and the price for 'more than two goals' plummeted. I'd asked for a price of 2.6 which I decided would only be met late in the game if there had been no more goals. As I feared that Liverpool would shut up shop, I didn't fancy two goals being scored in the last third of the game. So I cancelled the bet. If I'd had let it run, I would have collected when Spurs scored an injury-time goal to win the match 2-1.

And so to Sunday - perhaps the worst day's football betting I have ever suffered. There were three live games on TV and I decided not to pick and choose. I backed 'more than two goals' in each and 'more than 12 corners' in two of the three. Needless to say, each game finished with two goals and only one of the matches had more than 12 corners - the one I'd left alone. In all, I had seven bets - and they all lost.

Two of the games were particularly frustrating. Celtic missed a penalty in their 2-0 victory over Hearts. In the Derby v Nottingham Forest match, Derby scored a last-minute winner (which would have mad me a winner). But the referee, for some inexplicable reason, gave a penalty. The penalty, naturally, was saved. From the resulting corner, Derby scored again. But the referee blew for a foul, despite nothing untoward happening in the penalty area. Someone must have a lumpy bet on the draw.

Those two bizarre (and wrong) decisions cost me £80. Sometimes it's impossible not to think it's a conspiracy.

Running total: running out

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