The kids are all right

I was starting to think making money from gambling was easy. But after 20 years of continual losses, I shouldn’t have allowed one successful weekend to have clouded my judgement.

I had a quick study of the form online last night and found two horses that I didn’t think would like the heavy going. One was third favourite in its race and the other an outsider. I laid them to win £15. One came last in its race and the other a remote fourth.

I also had a £30 win on a horse that I fancied, and despite a couple of unsuccessful trades, I was £36 up going into the last race of the day. I wanted to make it a round £40, which would have meant that, with my (undeserved) wages, I had earned £200.

So I laid a horse at 24.0 for £4. There was an odds-on favourite in the race and the Racing Post’s website said about the horse I had laid: ‘Showed a little promise when fifth of 13 finishers at Plumpton in April, but needs to improve BUNDLES on that level to take a hand here.’ I also had £8 on the favourite to win.

You know the rest. Four minutes later I had lost £100 – my single biggest ever loss on a race. I don’t know how I managed to suppress a scream while sitting at my desk watching the odds on the horse I had laid plummet, as it drew away from the field, with the favourite treading water in fourth place.

But why do I do it? I’d used my skill and judgement to make £15 on two horses that I couldn’t envisage winning. I’d won £30 on another horse. And then I lost £90 on a horse I knew nothing about, on the strength of a sentence on the Racing Post website. It’s not as though I could assess how the bet was going – I was betting completely blind, as wasn’t in front of a TV.

So I was more than £50 down on the day and determined to win the money back on the night’s Carling Cup matches, which are notorious betting minefields, as so many clubs play under-strength sides.

Chasing losses is one of the biggest mistakes a gambler can make. You don’t have to make a profit every day – as long as you make one in the long run. But it’s a trap into which I still regularly fall (or should I say jump two footed).

The only game that caught my eye was Arsenal’s youth team playing Wigan in the Carling Cup. I thought the price for ‘more than two goals’ was too high, so I had £40 on it, then traded it off after 20 minutes with the match still goalless, for a profit of £15.

But it was such an open game. Wigan’s goalkeeper had made several outstanding saves and it looked as if it was just a matter of time before Arsenal scored. So I had £30 on ‘more than two goals’. I was right, as Arsenal scored just before half-time.

The price on ‘more than two goals’ had obviously plummeted, but it was still a good bet, in my eyes. Wigan would have to be more ambitious and if any side could exploit the gaps left by a team Arsenal pushing forward, it was Arsenal. So I kept backing the outcome every few minutes at the start of the second half, as the price continued to rise.

My hunch was proved correct. Arsenal ran out 3-0 winners and I had made £80 on the match. I had managed to recoup the afternoon’s losses and made an overall profit on the day of £22.

Let’s hope I heed the lesson that when I bet sensible on things that I have some knowledge (top-flight football) or have done some research (the two horses that wouldn’t like the going), I am becoming pretty successful. But betting against a horse I know nothing about in a race that I cannot watch is folly.

Running total: I’m almost ready to work it out