Villains of the piece

This is the most difficult entry that I've had to write for this blog - and it's taken a week for me to be able to talk about it.

Despite all the near misses and stupid mistakes over the past few months that have drained my bank balance, I've had a 'certainty' up my sleeve which was going to help me redeem a fair proportion of my losses.

I was trawling Betfair's football markets in the autumn and found a market that pitted Aston Villa against Stoke and West Brom. It was an absolute no-brainer as to which of the three would finish highest in the Premier League, as reflected by the price of 1.14 for Villa to win. Still, with interest rates tumbling, there was nowhere else that you could get a 14% return on your money over eight months, so I had a couple of hundred pounds on Villa.

Thereafter, every couple of weeks, when I had a few quid to spare, rather than putting it into the building society, I backed Villa. As expected, West Brom and Stoke were soon fighting a relegation battle, while Villa were challenging for a Champions League place. Incredibly, the price went out to 1.5 at the start of the year, before settling at 1.28. As Villa pulled further clear, I kept plunging on them.

Last weekend Villa were playing Stoke at home. They were 25 points clear of Stoke (and 28 clear of West Brom) with only 12 games to play. A victory for Villa would have made it almost mathematically impossible for them to have been overtaken (in reality, it was pretty much already in the bag, as Stoke's away form read 'played 13, won 0, drawn three, lost 10, for eight, against 29'). So I had a final £300 on Villa, taking my total stake to £2,700.

Villa took a 2-0 lead in the match, but Stoke, who had scored only eight times in 1,356 minutes on the road, scored twice in the last four minutes to secure a draw. Not that I was too bothered because the bet was still as good as won (as it had been since day one). So I logged on to Betfair expecting to see Villa's price having dropped to 1.01. But to my amazement, Stoke were now favourites. A huge knot developed in my stomach as I realised that the market was not who would finish top in the division, but who would win the most points against the other two sides.

After a little research, I discovered that Villa had beaten West Brom twice, but lost at Stoke in September (to a last-minute goal). Stoke had beaten West Brom at home, but had still to play them away. So even though I had misunderstood the market, if Villa hadn't surrendered their 2-0 lead, I would still have won. Instead, two last-minute goals (in the matches at Stoke and at Villa) meant that I was staring the biggest loss of my life in the face. It's hard enough losing, but it's the nature of the defeats that gets me down. Not only were both matches decided by last-minute goals, on doing some research, I discovered that Aston Villa are the only side in the division that Stoke have secured four points against. So if they had been matched against any one of the other 18 sides, they would have lost.

Anyway, the upshot is that I can get out of the bet now and accept a loss of £1,250 whatever the outcome of the West Brom v Stoke match next month. Or I can be brave and hope that West Brom beat Stoke (and remember that Stoke haven't won an away game all season) and collect my £750 profit. But If Stoke get a draw or win, I lose £2,700. What a dilemma. Any advice?