Flogging a dead horse

I’m going away to Cornwall for a few days tomorrow, which is probably a good thing for my sanity and my finances. I’ll have a small accumulator on the weekend’s football matches, but will not be able to spend hours logged on to Betfair.

This is just as well, as not only am I getting carried away – but my luck is incredible. Yesterday afternoon at work, things were a little quiet. So I logged on to Betfair and laid a horse to lose. It was about the fifth favourite of the 10 runners. But it won – and I was £34 down. So I started to chase my losses. During the course of the afternoon, I backed six favourites to win – four finished second, one third and one fourth. I was £80 down. Quite unbelievably, I did exactly the same thing this afternoon, and although I backed one short-priced winner, I laid two others to the tune of £70. Another day, another £50 loss.

I’m afraid that this project has started to take over my life. Not the dream of turning £1,000 into £10,000 because my stake money has long gone. But making sitting in front of At The Races on my laptop the focus of my weekend – particularly when it’s costing me money. My Betfair account is now empty and I’ve got a tax bill due next week that I can’t pay.

I genuinely believe that I can make a profit on any horse race that I watch. Although this is clearly a misapprehension, I am less than £100 down on my betting on the racing over the past 10 weeks (it’s my football betting that is putting me in danger of going skint). So I have been arranging my life around getting back to my computer before the first race of the day. No time to go to the gym today. Can’t stay for lunch, mum, I’ve got things to do.

And in the week, although I am not turning down nights out, I am not arranging anything if there is an evening meeting on – and there is every Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Leave work, rush home and on with the laptop.

If I was making money, it might be a sacrifice worth making. But as I’m not, it isn’t. So when I get back from Cornwall on Sunday, I will be knocking the trading on the head, topping up my accounts and focusing on my football betting. Watch this space

Happy new year – for some

I have been doing well on my racing trading, regularly making £60 in an afternoon. In fact, I was £300 up on my betting on the horses in the last three months of the year. Whether it was the effects of going to bed at 04.30 I don’t know, but all my good work was wiped out in the space of two disastrous hours on the afternoon of New Year’s Day. A horse with no previous form sprouted wings in the final furlong of an all-weather race to catch the leader on the line. As the commentator said: “There was no way you could have predicted that.” It was little comfort to me, as I had lost £150 in 90 seconds.

Then I started chasing losses – and managed to back five consecutive losing favourites. The horse that was generally regarded as the “bet of the day” fell, while another was overhauled in the last 100 years of its race. In desperation, I decided to lay the next favourite. It won, of course. I was lost for words. And my bank balance was £250 lighter.

One of my friends has started asking me to tell her what I am going to back, so that she can do the opposite. It’s hard to argue with such logic, at the moment.

Hell-Bent on going skint

Since Black Sunday, things have got little better. As I can’t afford to continue my strategy with goals and corners, I am selectively backing matches that I fancy. But I am still getting far more wrong than right.

There were three live matches on last Sunday (Hibernian v Hearts, Wigan v Spurs and Man Utd v Chelsea), providing me with six opportunities to follow my strategy (total goals and total corners). I made five of the six bets – they all lost. The only one I didn’t do (“more than two goals” in the Man Utd v Chelsea game) was the only winner. Another £100 down the drain. Someone up there doesn’t like me.

Yesterday, there were four matches being played. As I was going to West Ham v Fulham, and had lost £200 on the previous afternoon, I decided not to have a bet. When I returned after West Ham’s facile victory, I discovered that the first three games of the day had all featured “more than two goals”, meaning that I would have been quids in had I followed my usual strategy. So I had a large bet on “more than two goals” in the Tottenham v Portsmouth match. It finished 1-1, with David James making several outstanding saves and Darren Bent missing an open goal from two yards.

I also had £12 on a horse in the last race of the day, with the intention of laying it off in running for a profit of a couple of quid. But I became engrossed in the football, and by the time I had remembered about the race, my horse had finished second last and I had recorded yet another losing bet. My luck has to change soon.

A kick in the teeth

You’ll have to excuse my lack of communication. It’s not that I’ve stopped gambling. Far from it. It’s just that I had a couple of terrible days that made me question whether I should be losing so much money (and then bringing it back to mind by writing on it).

The date was Sunday November 23. As you may remember, I was about £300 down on total goals betting and £150 down on total corners on live football matches. The strategy was to back more “than two goals” in every live match, increasing my stake each time that I had a losing bet to cover my previous losses and turn a small profit. It was the same deal with “more than 12 corners”.

The first game of the day was Spurs v Blackburn. I fancied an attacking game with plenty of goals and corners, so I had £60 on each outcome. Despite Spurs taking an early lead, the game finished 1-0. There were 12 corners – one shy of the number I needed.

At the same time, I was trading on the afternoon’s racing. It was soon the usual story. After several small wins, I laid (took a bet on) a horse to win at a long price, as it looked as if it would struggle to get round the course, let alone come home in front. But somehow it did – and I had lost £120. Rather than slowly recouping my losses, I started backing favourites to win. I had soon lost another £100.

The second live match of the afternoon was Sunderland v West Ham. Now I have had a season ticket at West Ham for 20 years and have been to hundreds of matches. So I feel that I am well positioned to predict their results. And I fancied Sunderland to win a drab match. But because of the strategy I was following, I felt that I had to have heavy bets on lots of goals and corners – even though I didn't fancy it. So I had £85 each on “more than 12 corners” and “more than two goals”, as well as £40 on Sunderland to win. West Ham’s 1-0 victory, with only seven corners, cost me another £210. Yes, Sunderland were unlucky (they should have had a penalty and had enough chances to have made two of my bets winners), but being “unlucky” was becoming too familiar a story. In exasperation, I had £50 on Barcelona to win that evening at 1.25. They drew (it was the first time they had failed to win at home all season) – and I had lost £560 on the day.

The most ridiculous aspect of the situation is that even if my two larger bets on the Sunderland match had come up trumps, I would have recouped very little of my losses (I would still have been £260 on my total goals betting and £80 down on corners). Instead, I was £445 and £295 down respectively.

My losses were almost rendered insignificant only three days later. After a lengthy study of the midweek fixtures, I fancied four teams to win and five matches to have “more than two goals.” I combined them in sixfolds (for 25p), sevenfolds (60p), eightfolds (£1.10) and an accumulator (£12.50). My outlay of £63.80 was almost twice as much as I had ever placed on such a bet before. But I was unusually confident.

And my confidence was soon looking justified. From the very first minute, goals started hitting the net in all of my games. I was watching the scores on Sky Sports and was getting more excited as the minutes ticked by. With a few minutes to go, all four of the teams I had backed were winning, and at least three goals had been scored in four of my five games. If either side scored again in the Hartlepool v Brighton match, I would have a full house. I logged on to the BBC website and started watching the live text feed. The score was 1-1 (as it had been since the 25th minute) and Hartlepool were piling on the pressure. But the game ended without further score.

Hartlepool’s previous 11 home games had averaged more than four goals each. The BBC report the next day started: “Hartlepool were made to pay for their wastefulness in front of goal…” I won £244. But one more goal from either side and it would have been more than £3,200. One of these days…

Having second thoughts

I’ve had a frustrating couple of days. Buoyed by my win, and with time on my hands at work, I had a little wager on most races on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

The good news is that I didn’t lay horses blind to win a couple of quid, while risking more than £100 (well, not too often). The bad news is that I lost a high proportion of the bets that I placed.

Wednesday wasn’t a disaster, as I lost only £30. But Thursday was a highly frustrating day. Basically, I had a quick look at the Racing Post website, then backed either the favourite or second favourite in each race. And I got it wrong every time.

My bets were: £5 at 2.3 (2nd); £6 at 1.92 (2nd); £3 at 2.5 (pulled up); £5 at 2.5 (2nd); £6 at 2.27 (2nd); £3 at 2.64 (4th); and £11 at 2.76 (5th).

For a little diversity, I also laid a favourite at 2.26 for £5. Naturally, it won. I should have known it wasn’t going to be my day when I laid an outsider for £3 at 9.6. As I sat watching my screen, the price drifted out to 25.0. The horse was clearly tailed off, so I went to the toilet, safe in the knowledge that I had recouped £3. When I got back to my desk, I was aghast to discover that it had won – and I had lost £25.60.

I lost another £20 on the evening racing. Rather than laying no-hopers in running, my losses dictated that I backed outsiders, as the returns are significantly higher. But I didn’t get close.

As I totted up my losses for the day, I checked out the result for the horse that was tailed off but somehow cost me £25.60. It had been miles behind its rivals in fifth place, when all four leaders fell at the same fence, leaving it to plod home in its own time.

When your luck’s out, it’s out. And my luck is out to the tune of £100 in two days. Ouch

Running total: getting smaller

Here we go, here we go

Monday afternoon was nicely profitable. Some unambitious, but successful, trading had put me about £10 ahead. Then I backed a favourite with the intention of laying it off in-running, for a small profit. But I got distracted and forgot to place the lay bet. When I logged back on to Betfair, I found that the horse had won – and I had trousered £32.

In the evening, I fancied lots of goals and corners in the Northampton v Leeds FA Cup tie. For some reason, though, I had more money on the number of corners than on the number of goals, despite the former being being less easy to predict and not going in running (so you can't cut your losses if it isn't going well).

My predictions were both spot on. There were 17 corner and seven goals. My profit on the match was £50, but I couldn't help but be frustrated that I hadn't had a larger total-goals bet. Still, a profit of almost £90 on a Monday is not to be sniffed at.

The following day, I did another hour of gentle trading during my lunchbreak. I was successful on every race and made £15. After work, I spent half an hour studying the form for the evening's football fixtures.

My only strong fancy was for Torquay to beat Lewes (1/4). But I had a few other inklings, so added Hartlepool (Evs) and Dagenham and Redbridge (6/5) to win, and the Barrow v Eastbourne (4/5), Lincoln v Kettering (8/11) and Rochdale v Barnet (4/5) matches to each have more than two goals. I combined them in fivefolds (£1) and an accumulator (£10).

At half-time, Torquay were 3-0 ahead, Dagenham were winning and there had been two goals in the Rochdale match. But the Lincoln game was scoreless and Hartlepool were losing at home to Brighton. Another near missed looked likely.

But it wasn't look before things started getting exciting.
47 minutes: Barrow 2 Eastbourne 0
54 minutes: Lincoln 1 Kettering 0
57 minutes: Barrow 3 Eastbourne 0
56 minutes: Rochdale 1 Barnet 2
67 minutes: Hartlepool 1 Brighton 1
68 minutes: Lincoln 1 Kettering 1
70 minutes: Hartlepool 2 Brighton 1

With Torquay 4-1 ahead and Dagenham leading Hereford 2-1, I needed one more goal in the Lincoln v Kettering match in the final 20 minutes. I sat with my eyes glued to the BBC website, imploring one of the sides to score. And then, just when the final scores were starting to come in, it happened:
GOAL Lincoln 1-2 Kettering: Christie (90+1)

As the final whistle had yet to go in either the Dagenham or Hartlepool matches, both of whom were holding one-goal leads, I logged off and went to bed. It was only the next morning at work, when I checked my betting account, that I found the sum of £413.82 added to my account.

So that's £500 profit in 48 hours.

Running total: ask me at the weekend

Home discomfort

I had a late night on Saturday and was going round my parents' for lunch, so there wasn't going to be much chance for betting on Sunday. That suited me because I was getting fed up with my poor luck and even worse decision making.

At about 11.30, I decided to check how my football bet had got on. I knew Chelsea and Manchester United had won, but at half-time, the Swindon v Leicester match had been scoreless. To my delight, there had been four goals in the second half, and as my other 'more than two goals' selection had ended 3-1 to MK Dons, my first four selections had won. The idea of an afternoon's gambling was suddenly a far more attractive proposition.

I'm embarrassed to say that I spent little more than an hour at my parents' (and it was their anniversary), before heading back to my TV and laptop.

As usual, the wins were far more regular than the losses. However, as happens every time, I managed to sustain one substantial loss. But as it was only £66, I was quite nonchalant about it. It's only £66.

My luck on the football was equally poor. For a change, I backed 'fewer than two goals' in the Hamilton v Celtic match, only for a third goal to be scored in the 86th minute. At the same time, I had backed 'more than two goals' in the Everton v Middlesbrough match, which finished 1-1. Most frustrating of all was a bet I had on 'more than 12 corners' in the latter match. The 12th corner of the match was taken in the 58th minute – and that was the last of the game. So I finished one goal short and one flag-kick short. It was so frustrating.

Of course, I still had my football accumulator running. With hindsight, I definitely made the wrong decision with regard to hedging my final two selections. I laid Milan(second in the table and having won their last seven home matches) for £20 at 1.25 against Chievo Verona (bottom of the table, without a win since the opening day of the season, and only one goal on the road). Milan scored after six minutes and held on comfortably. I had wasted £5 on a result that was never in doubt.

On paper, Udinese (unbeaten at home and averaging two goals a game) should have found it just as easy against Reggina (lost all six away games, while scoring only one goal). But Udinese don't have the quality of players that Milan have and were anything but a certainty. So my decision to lay them at 1.57 for £10 wasn't a clever one, bearing in mind that if they had won, I would have pocketed £173. They lost and I won £10. But the original bet had been £17 and I had lost £5 laying Milan.

A win on 'more than two goals' in the Hull v Man City game meant that I finished the afternoon £3 down. But I was £110 down on the weekend. Why do I bet on Italian football sides that I know nothing about?

Running total: running out