Having second thoughts

I’ve had a frustrating couple of days. Buoyed by my win, and with time on my hands at work, I had a little wager on most races on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

The good news is that I didn’t lay horses blind to win a couple of quid, while risking more than £100 (well, not too often). The bad news is that I lost a high proportion of the bets that I placed.

Wednesday wasn’t a disaster, as I lost only £30. But Thursday was a highly frustrating day. Basically, I had a quick look at the Racing Post website, then backed either the favourite or second favourite in each race. And I got it wrong every time.

My bets were: £5 at 2.3 (2nd); £6 at 1.92 (2nd); £3 at 2.5 (pulled up); £5 at 2.5 (2nd); £6 at 2.27 (2nd); £3 at 2.64 (4th); and £11 at 2.76 (5th).

For a little diversity, I also laid a favourite at 2.26 for £5. Naturally, it won. I should have known it wasn’t going to be my day when I laid an outsider for £3 at 9.6. As I sat watching my screen, the price drifted out to 25.0. The horse was clearly tailed off, so I went to the toilet, safe in the knowledge that I had recouped £3. When I got back to my desk, I was aghast to discover that it had won – and I had lost £25.60.

I lost another £20 on the evening racing. Rather than laying no-hopers in running, my losses dictated that I backed outsiders, as the returns are significantly higher. But I didn’t get close.

As I totted up my losses for the day, I checked out the result for the horse that was tailed off but somehow cost me £25.60. It had been miles behind its rivals in fifth place, when all four leaders fell at the same fence, leaving it to plod home in its own time.

When your luck’s out, it’s out. And my luck is out to the tune of £100 in two days. Ouch

Running total: getting smaller

Here we go, here we go

Monday afternoon was nicely profitable. Some unambitious, but successful, trading had put me about £10 ahead. Then I backed a favourite with the intention of laying it off in-running, for a small profit. But I got distracted and forgot to place the lay bet. When I logged back on to Betfair, I found that the horse had won – and I had trousered £32.

In the evening, I fancied lots of goals and corners in the Northampton v Leeds FA Cup tie. For some reason, though, I had more money on the number of corners than on the number of goals, despite the former being being less easy to predict and not going in running (so you can't cut your losses if it isn't going well).

My predictions were both spot on. There were 17 corner and seven goals. My profit on the match was £50, but I couldn't help but be frustrated that I hadn't had a larger total-goals bet. Still, a profit of almost £90 on a Monday is not to be sniffed at.

The following day, I did another hour of gentle trading during my lunchbreak. I was successful on every race and made £15. After work, I spent half an hour studying the form for the evening's football fixtures.

My only strong fancy was for Torquay to beat Lewes (1/4). But I had a few other inklings, so added Hartlepool (Evs) and Dagenham and Redbridge (6/5) to win, and the Barrow v Eastbourne (4/5), Lincoln v Kettering (8/11) and Rochdale v Barnet (4/5) matches to each have more than two goals. I combined them in fivefolds (£1) and an accumulator (£10).

At half-time, Torquay were 3-0 ahead, Dagenham were winning and there had been two goals in the Rochdale match. But the Lincoln game was scoreless and Hartlepool were losing at home to Brighton. Another near missed looked likely.

But it wasn't look before things started getting exciting.
47 minutes: Barrow 2 Eastbourne 0
54 minutes: Lincoln 1 Kettering 0
57 minutes: Barrow 3 Eastbourne 0
56 minutes: Rochdale 1 Barnet 2
67 minutes: Hartlepool 1 Brighton 1
68 minutes: Lincoln 1 Kettering 1
70 minutes: Hartlepool 2 Brighton 1

With Torquay 4-1 ahead and Dagenham leading Hereford 2-1, I needed one more goal in the Lincoln v Kettering match in the final 20 minutes. I sat with my eyes glued to the BBC website, imploring one of the sides to score. And then, just when the final scores were starting to come in, it happened:
GOAL Lincoln 1-2 Kettering: Christie (90+1)

As the final whistle had yet to go in either the Dagenham or Hartlepool matches, both of whom were holding one-goal leads, I logged off and went to bed. It was only the next morning at work, when I checked my betting account, that I found the sum of £413.82 added to my account.

So that's £500 profit in 48 hours.

Running total: ask me at the weekend

Home discomfort

I had a late night on Saturday and was going round my parents' for lunch, so there wasn't going to be much chance for betting on Sunday. That suited me because I was getting fed up with my poor luck and even worse decision making.

At about 11.30, I decided to check how my football bet had got on. I knew Chelsea and Manchester United had won, but at half-time, the Swindon v Leicester match had been scoreless. To my delight, there had been four goals in the second half, and as my other 'more than two goals' selection had ended 3-1 to MK Dons, my first four selections had won. The idea of an afternoon's gambling was suddenly a far more attractive proposition.

I'm embarrassed to say that I spent little more than an hour at my parents' (and it was their anniversary), before heading back to my TV and laptop.

As usual, the wins were far more regular than the losses. However, as happens every time, I managed to sustain one substantial loss. But as it was only £66, I was quite nonchalant about it. It's only £66.

My luck on the football was equally poor. For a change, I backed 'fewer than two goals' in the Hamilton v Celtic match, only for a third goal to be scored in the 86th minute. At the same time, I had backed 'more than two goals' in the Everton v Middlesbrough match, which finished 1-1. Most frustrating of all was a bet I had on 'more than 12 corners' in the latter match. The 12th corner of the match was taken in the 58th minute – and that was the last of the game. So I finished one goal short and one flag-kick short. It was so frustrating.

Of course, I still had my football accumulator running. With hindsight, I definitely made the wrong decision with regard to hedging my final two selections. I laid Milan(second in the table and having won their last seven home matches) for £20 at 1.25 against Chievo Verona (bottom of the table, without a win since the opening day of the season, and only one goal on the road). Milan scored after six minutes and held on comfortably. I had wasted £5 on a result that was never in doubt.

On paper, Udinese (unbeaten at home and averaging two goals a game) should have found it just as easy against Reggina (lost all six away games, while scoring only one goal). But Udinese don't have the quality of players that Milan have and were anything but a certainty. So my decision to lay them at 1.57 for £10 wasn't a clever one, bearing in mind that if they had won, I would have pocketed £173. They lost and I won £10. But the original bet had been £17 and I had lost £5 laying Milan.

A win on 'more than two goals' in the Hull v Man City game meant that I finished the afternoon £3 down. But I was £110 down on the weekend. Why do I bet on Italian football sides that I know nothing about?

Running total: running out

Blowing Chunks

I was again going out for the day, so I was up at six to work out my bets for the day. That meant that the last thing I did before going to bed on Friday night was gambling related, as was the first thing I did on Saturday morning. Hmmm...

I could find very little I fancied on the football coupon, so plumped for a £17 sixfold on Manchester United, Chelsea, Inter Milan and Udinese to win, with 'more than two goals' in the Hartlepool v Milton Keynes and Swindon v Leicester league games.

After a trip to Tesco and a quick workout in the gym, I had 45 minutes to spare. No prizes for guessing what I did. And I was on top form. Using various strategies, I made money on the first five races. And it was reasonable money – between £5 and £12 a race – meaning that I was £35 up for 40 minutes' work.

And then it happened. It was the final race before I had to leave the flat and a horse that I had laid successfully last week was running. I had noticed that it never ran well on soft ground, and although the going was good to soft (compared with heavy the last time I had laid it), I decided to lay it for £3 at 20, for an easy profit.

The race started and Chunky Lad settled in third place. It didn't look as if it was struggling with the ground, but it wasn't jumping as well as some of its rivals. The horse remained in third place, but confident in my theory about the going, I laid it for another £5 at 12.

Approaching the second-last fence, the favourite was going very easily, so I had £10 on it, just to increase my profits on the race. And then disaster struck. The favourite fell and Chunky Lad's other rival made a mistake. I tried to get a bet on Chunky Lad, but the price had plummeted to such an extent that I would have had to have £100 on just to recoup £20 if the horse had won. But if it had lost, I would have wasted £100.

It was such a hard choice – and I had a split second to make it – but I decided to let the bet run. Going over the last fence, Chunky Lad's rival took the lead – and it looked as if I had made the right decision. But Chunky Lad fought back and they passed the line together. It went to a photo (every big loss I suffer goes to a photo) and the price on Chunky Lad to get the verdict flashed up on Betfair at 1.08. I didn't need to wait around for the official result. I knew that I had lost £122 on the race.

Running total: I've thrown my calculator away

A fool and his money . . .

It's the biggest cliché in gambling. And after my behaviour on Thursday, I must be the biggest fool on the planet.

Boredom at work led me on to Betfair. I was keeping my head above water, when the inevitable happened. I laid a big-priced horse for the sake of winning about £4 and, after it had surpassed all its known form, I had lost almost £100 on a horse for the second time in 48 hours.

I had written on here at the time that I must stop taking bets on horses I know nothing about in races that I can't watch. Yet I've done it again – and lost big again.

I am starting to worry on many fronts. Not only about my bank balance, but also about my sanity. Even more worryingly, I am worried about being addicted. I eschewed a night out to go home to try to retrieve some of my losses on the evening racing. I had a good night. I recouped £50 – and if it hadn't been for a losing bet that went to a photo finish, it would have been £90.

The following evening, I made another £30. So I had wiped out all but £20 of the deficit. But if I had shown a little more discipline, I would have been about £600 up over the past seven days.

Running total: you do the maths

The kids are all right

I was starting to think making money from gambling was easy. But after 20 years of continual losses, I shouldn’t have allowed one successful weekend to have clouded my judgement.

I had a quick study of the form online last night and found two horses that I didn’t think would like the heavy going. One was third favourite in its race and the other an outsider. I laid them to win £15. One came last in its race and the other a remote fourth.

I also had a £30 win on a horse that I fancied, and despite a couple of unsuccessful trades, I was £36 up going into the last race of the day. I wanted to make it a round £40, which would have meant that, with my (undeserved) wages, I had earned £200.

So I laid a horse at 24.0 for £4. There was an odds-on favourite in the race and the Racing Post’s website said about the horse I had laid: ‘Showed a little promise when fifth of 13 finishers at Plumpton in April, but needs to improve BUNDLES on that level to take a hand here.’ I also had £8 on the favourite to win.

You know the rest. Four minutes later I had lost £100 – my single biggest ever loss on a race. I don’t know how I managed to suppress a scream while sitting at my desk watching the odds on the horse I had laid plummet, as it drew away from the field, with the favourite treading water in fourth place.

But why do I do it? I’d used my skill and judgement to make £15 on two horses that I couldn’t envisage winning. I’d won £30 on another horse. And then I lost £90 on a horse I knew nothing about, on the strength of a sentence on the Racing Post website. It’s not as though I could assess how the bet was going – I was betting completely blind, as wasn’t in front of a TV.

So I was more than £50 down on the day and determined to win the money back on the night’s Carling Cup matches, which are notorious betting minefields, as so many clubs play under-strength sides.

Chasing losses is one of the biggest mistakes a gambler can make. You don’t have to make a profit every day – as long as you make one in the long run. But it’s a trap into which I still regularly fall (or should I say jump two footed).

The only game that caught my eye was Arsenal’s youth team playing Wigan in the Carling Cup. I thought the price for ‘more than two goals’ was too high, so I had £40 on it, then traded it off after 20 minutes with the match still goalless, for a profit of £15.

But it was such an open game. Wigan’s goalkeeper had made several outstanding saves and it looked as if it was just a matter of time before Arsenal scored. So I had £30 on ‘more than two goals’. I was right, as Arsenal scored just before half-time.

The price on ‘more than two goals’ had obviously plummeted, but it was still a good bet, in my eyes. Wigan would have to be more ambitious and if any side could exploit the gaps left by a team Arsenal pushing forward, it was Arsenal. So I kept backing the outcome every few minutes at the start of the second half, as the price continued to rise.

My hunch was proved correct. Arsenal ran out 3-0 winners and I had made £80 on the match. I had managed to recoup the afternoon’s losses and made an overall profit on the day of £22.

Let’s hope I heed the lesson that when I bet sensible on things that I have some knowledge (top-flight football) or have done some research (the two horses that wouldn’t like the going), I am becoming pretty successful. But betting against a horse I know nothing about in a race that I cannot watch is folly.

Running total: I’m almost ready to work it out

Back to black

I had found out in the pub on Saturday evening (how did we live before iPhones?) that my first bet had won me £142.39. I also knew that the first two legs of my second wager had been successful.

By Sunday morning, Barcelona had won 6-0. So my fortunes rested on the fate of Chelsea, Genoa and Sevilla. I considered Chelsea a certainty against an injury-hit Blackburn, so settled down in front of the TV for an afternoon’s trading. I had planned to nip out early to buy the Racing Post, to see whether studying form could give me an edge. A late night and splitting headache ruined this plan, but I still spent a couple of hours on the paper’s website. I identified a couple of horses that I didn’t think could win in the heavy going and laid them. One was second favourite, but as I was trying to establish whether I could pick horses that couldn’t win, I laid it for £10 (twice my usual maximum).

The afternoon started as the previous day had finished. I made a profit on the first 14 races of the day, albeit it generally small ones (my losses have led to a more cautious approach). The two horses I had laid that morning were both well beaten. The second favourite I had laid at 4.7 drifted to 9.4 by the start of the race, and ran and jumped as if its legs were tied together. When Chelsea went into a 2-0 lead, I was feeling invincible.

Not invincible enough to let the Genoa leg of the bet run without laying it. I laid them for £20 at 1.4, but despite going in scoreless at the break, they beat 10-man Reggiana 3-0. So I had lost £8 – but my main bet was still running.

My luck on the horses dipped, but I still lost on only four races all afternoon – and the biggest of them was £15. I finished £70 up on the gee-gees.

The final leg of my football bet was Sevilla to beat Recreativo Huelva. Sevilla had won six of their seven home games, keeping five clean sheets, while Recreativo had scored only twice in their five away matches. On paper, it should have been a comfortable home win. But 20 years of the last leg of an accumulator letting me down – and always ‘comfortable home wins’ – had taught me to fear the worst. So I laid Sevilla at 1.39 for £25.

The match was scoreless at half time, but Sevilla eventually put one of their chances away. The scorer was Freddi Kanoute, who I used to watch in action at the Boleyn Ground. Although he missed a penalty a few minutes later, this was definitely a fonder memory than anything he ever produced in the claret and blue.

The game entered four minutes of injury time with the score still 1-0. By now, Sevilla were 1.1 to win. The sensible thing to do would have been to lay them for another £40 (losing £4 if they held on), but my mood had swung from pessimistic to bolshy, and I let the bet run its course. I was almost left to rue my cockiness, as Recreativo had three golden chances. But Sevilla hang on and I had pocketed £191.92. Incredibly, none of the seven teams I had fancied (Wolfsburg won 3-0) even conceded a goal.

I was happy – but not as happy as I should have been. I couldn’t help but think that I should have put Barcelona into my first bet, which would have won me another £30. And why did I leave out Liverpool to beat West Brom? And what if I had used my £53 stake as a straight accumulator on my eight successful predictions? That would have won me almost £2,500. And why do I win only when I am less ambitious, whereas all the wagers of the past few weeks that would have paid out four-figure sums are thwarted by the width of the crossbar.

But the bottom line is that I had made just under £400 on the weekend’s gambling. And if Leeds could have secured a deserved win on Friday night, it would have been nearly £500.

Running total: back in the black