Morecambe wasn't wise

Well it’s a month into the new season and, hard as it is to believe, I’m in profit. It’s only about £20, but it is so long that I have been in the black that I’m going to make a song and dance about it.

My only win of note has been £200 on my first football bet of the season. Although it was a great way to start, it was equally frustrating because I had halved my usual stake. But rather than heralding a profitable new era in my gambling career, this win has been followed by the usual array of ridiculously lucky near misses.

In summary, since I hit the jackpot, my results have been (and I need to get all my predictions right to make a profit): six out of seven correct; four out of five correct; four out of five correct; five out of six correct: one out of five correct; six out of seven correct; and two out of three correct.

The penultimate loss was particularly galling. The one prediction I got wrong was Rotherham to beat Morecambe. Rotherham were top of the table, having won all four of their home matches. They were averaging almost three goals per game. Morecambe were in 23rd place, having lost all four of their away games, scoring four and conceding 13 in the process. A home win was one of the bets of the day in The Sun and the London Paper. But it was the last selection to go into my bet – and I included it only to bump up my potential winnings.

Morecambe held out for a 0-0 draw. The BBC report read: ‘The Millers [Rotherham] dominated after half-time, with Kevin Ellison twice going close and Danny Harrison having a header cleared off the line.’ If any of those chances has been converted, I would have won £600.

As far as the horseracing is concerned, I have significantly curtailed my activity. I obviously couldn’t continue like I was before I went away in June, rushing home from work every night to log on to Betfair, then sitting in front of my laptop all weekend. It still makes me shake with anger that I lost £6,000 (a third of my total income from journalism for the year) in four months – including almost £400 on a single race. I have yet to resubscribe to the software that I need to carry out my system. I did have a little dabble one afternoon without it, but was soon £60 down.

I have not set any targets for this season. Losing less than £8,000 would be a step forward. But the continual near misses have encouraged me to undertake more detailed research before placing my football bets, particularly as I have a lot of time off work over the next few weeks. My simple aim is to win a four-figure sum three times this season. I am confident I will achieve this.